Frontex's next monthly irregular-crossing release (covering September 2026) shows the Western Mediterranean route posting a further year-over-year increase, extending the trend already visible through August.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Frontex's October data release showing the Western Mediterranean route's September year-over-year change. A reported flattening or decline versus September 2025 -- e.g. from stepped-up Spain-Morocco return cooperation after the Ceuta surge -- would count against this.
The verdict
Non liquet Resolved 26 Oct 26.
Frontex's release gives only cumulative figures (Jan-Sep +26%, down from +34% through Aug); the September-only y/y change is derivable only by rough estimate.
Peg monthly-data calls to a figure the source actually publishes at that cadence.
As logged at issue
Frontex's next monthly release is roughly as likely as not to show the Western Mediterranean route posting a further year-over-year increase for September, extending the trend already visible through August — unless Spain and Morocco's post-Ceuta return cooperation measurably slows new departures first.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-17-03 — recorded 17 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-17-03.html