The Saudi-led coalition does not carry out a strike on any of its named Yemeni targets (Hodeidah port, Ras Isa oil terminal, as-Salif port, Sanaa International Airport) within 30 days.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 26 Jul 26 Saudi Arabia struck Houthi-held Hodeidah on July 24 -- the exact named target this call bet against -- and Houthi retaliation against Saudi Aramco's Jazan and Yanbu facilities on July 25 confirms the exchange has moved well past a single strike.
What would overturn it
Any coalition strike on the named targets before August 4 would mark a real break from the ceasefire framework rather than posturing.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 10 Aug 26.
The truce cracked within the window: a Sanaa International Airport strike (Jul 13) blocked an Iranian aircraft, and Saudi-led coalition strikes hit Hodeidah-area targets (Jul 24-25) after a Red Sea attack on a Saudi-flagged vessel, with explosions also reported at Hodeidah port itself.
The 2022 truce framework was read as more durable than it was; a Red Sea provocation and an Iran-linked flight dispute were enough to trigger real strikes on two of the four named targets well inside the 30-day window.
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/24/saudis-strike-yemens-houthi-held-hodeida-rebel-media
As logged at issue
Saudi-led coalition names Hodeidah, Sanaa airport among targets if Houthi threats continue
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-05-02 — recorded 5 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-05-02.html