Chad will register at least 10,000 additional Sudanese refugee arrivals in the Ouaddai and Sila regions combined over the six months following the August 9 West Darfur displacement wave (by February 11, 2027).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
UNHCR Chad registration data showing a net increase of 10,000+ Sudanese refugees in the Ouaddai/Sila region over the period; the counter-signal would be registration figures showing the wave proving a temporary scatter rather than a sustained corridor.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 11 Feb 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Looking further out, it's likely Sudan's West Darfur displacement wave keeps pushing Sudanese refugees into Chad's Ouaddai and Sila regions over the next six months, given the week-long, multi-village pattern behind Sunday's nearly 6,000-person single-day count.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-11-04 — recorded 11 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-11-04.html