Either Uganda or Rwanda is formally confirmed by name as the EU Group of Five's chosen return-hub partner by November 30, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A signed or publicly announced host-country agreement naming Uganda or Rwanda specifically; continued talks with no formal choice announced by November 30 is the counter-signal.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 30 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Europe: we put it at roughly even odds that either Uganda or Rwanda is formally confirmed by name as the Group of Five's chosen return-hub partner by November 30, given that both are so far only reported as candidates, not a chosen partner. A signed or publicly announced host-country agreement is the signal we're right; continued talks with no formal choice by then is the signal we're wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-06-04 — recorded 6 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-06-04.html