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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-21-01Open

UK authorities charge at least one of the two men re-arrested over the RAF Fairford incident with any criminal offence by 18 November 2026.

National SecurityEuropeUnited KingdomIran
Issued No. 113 · 21 Oct 26  ·  Due 18 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%21 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 113): Opening calltodaydue 18 Nov 2650%21 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Release on bail with no charge would overturn the call.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 18 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Britain charges at least one of the two men re-arrested over RAF Fairford with an offence by 18 November 2026. Roughly even chance. Release on bail with no charge would overturn the call.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-21-01 — recorded 21 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-21-01.html