The Panama Canal Authority reduces the maximum Neopanamax draft below 14.94 m (49 ft) at any point before 2027-01-31.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A Panama Canal Authority advisory setting a Neopanamax maximum draft below 14.94 m.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Jan 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
It is a roughly even chance that the Panama Canal Authority cuts the maximum Neopanamax draft back below 14.94 m at some point before January 31, 2027, as the dry season tests Gatun Lake. Lake levels holding near average into January is the signal that it does not.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-29-03 — recorded 29 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-29-03.html