Peru's Congress passes a substantially narrowed version of President Fujimori's 120-day decree-powers bill — one that drops the military prison-control or border-security provisions — rather than the package as submitted, by September 30, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Congressional passage of the bill with the military prison-control and border-security provisions stripped or materially narrowed; passage of the bill substantially intact with both provisions preserved flips this false, as does outright rejection of the bill.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 5 Oct 26.
Congress had not passed any decree-powers bill by Sept 30; a narrowed security/El Nino compromise was only agreed late Sept 30 with committee action Oct 1.
Legislative-timing calls: the content forecast (narrowing) was right but the deadline was missed; compromise texts lag the calendar.
Source: https://www.riotimesonline.com/peru-decree-powers-compromise-security-el-nino-2026
As logged at issue
Roughly even odds that Peru's Congress passes a substantially narrowed version of the decree-powers bill — one that drops the military prison-control or border-security provisions — rather than the package as submitted, by September 30 — Fujimori's bloc lacks a majority and needs roughly ten opposition votes, and Peruvian congresses have a strong recent record of stripping executive security bills of their most contested provisions rather than rejecting them outright; passage of the bill substantially intact, with both the prison and border provisions preserved, would flip this false.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-30-03 — recorded 30 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-30-03.html