The US and Mexico do not reach a final agreement on the proposed AI-hardware rules-of-origin restriction within 90 days of this week's USMCA-review talks (by December 15, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A joint US-Mexico announcement, USMCA side-letter, or Commerce Department notice confirming agreed rules-of-origin thresholds for AI hardware. Continued negotiation with no signed text by December 15 counts for this call; a signed deal before then counts against it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 15 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Mexico and the US are roughly as likely as not to still be without a final AI-hardware rules-of-origin agreement 90 days from now, given how the rules-of-origin fight compounds an already-tense USMCA review — unless Mexico moves quickly to concede the point rather than let it become a bigger bargaining chip.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-16-03 — recorded 16 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-16-03.html