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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-04-03Open

The RSF's el-Obeid offensive will intensify over the next one to two weeks, and a mass-casualty assault on the scale of El Fasher would trigger a fresh cross-border displacement wave toward Chad and Egypt.

Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudan
Issued No. 4 · 4 Jul 26  ·  Due 25 Jul 26  ·  Opening call 70% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%4 Jul 26 — 70% (No. 4): Opening calltodaydue 25 Jul 2670%4 Jul 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A large-scale RSF assault on el-Obeid and a corresponding spike in cross-border movement toward Chad/Egypt.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 25 Jul 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

UN High Commissioner Volker Türk issued a 'red alert' over an imminent RSF assault on el-Obeid, a city of ~500,000 already hosting ~100,000 displaced.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-04-03 — recorded 4 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-04-03.html