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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-16-02Open

The U.S. and Mexico announce an agreement lowering tariffs on Mexican autos, steel or aluminum by 2026-11-15.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States
Issued No. 108 · 16 Oct 26  ·  Due 15 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 22% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%16 Oct 26 — 22% (No. 108): Opening calltodaydue 15 Nov 2622%16 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Commerce Department sign-off on rate cuts would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 15 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

The U.S. and Mexico announce an agreement lowering tariffs on Mexican autos, steel or aluminum by November 15. Unlikely. A Commerce Department sign-off on rate cuts would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-16-02 — recorded 16 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-16-02.html