Fugitive Dutch trafficking kingpin Jos Leijdekkers ('Bolle Jos') is arrested or otherwise located by authorities within 90 days of this week's French cocaine seizure tied to his network (by December 7, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A confirmed arrest or authorities publicly locating Leijdekkers before December 7 is the signal we're wrong; his network continuing to move product while he remains at large is the signal we're right.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 7 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Bolle Jos: we think it's unlikely he's caught within 90 days -- he has evaded a 24-year in-absentia sentence for years while reportedly based in Sierra Leone, and one seizure tied to his network, even a multi-ton one, has not previously translated into his capture. A confirmed arrest or located whereabouts before December 7 is the signal we're wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-08-04 — recorded 8 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-08-04.html