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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-08-03Open

Kenya's health ministry or the WHO confirms a second Bundibugyo Ebola case in Kenya by November 8, 2026.

Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastKenyaUgandaDemocratic Republic of the Congo
Issued No. 100 · 8 Oct 26  ·  Due 8 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 30% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%8 Oct 26 — 30% (No. 100): Opening calltodaydue 8 Nov 2630%8 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A positive test among the health workers or relatives being traced would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 8 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that Kenya's health ministry or WHO confirms a second Bundibugyo case in Kenya by November 8. The first patient is the only known infection; a positive test among those being traced would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-08-03 — recorded 8 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-08-03.html