Venezuela's June-24 earthquake casualty/missing figures will be revised further upward and early cross-border displacement indicators will appear by 31 July.

The trajectory

The record since

• 10 Jul 26 No. 10 · revised to 75%
  The confirmed toll climbed again to 3,889 and PAHO warned of a "critical" emerging health emergency from disrupted care and water/sanitation — both raise the odds this call's compound bar (further upward revision plus displacement indicators) is met by July 31.
• 11 Jul 26 No. 11 · revised to 82%
  Confirmed death toll passed 4,000 (from 3,535 on July 7) and reporting points to a 'critical' emerging health emergency from disrupted water/sanitation/care — both raise the odds of further upward revision and displacement indicators by July 31.
• 14 Jul 26 No. 14 · revised to 84%
  Toll rose to 4,561 (from 4,490) and camp population to over 20,200 (from ~19,500); no government missing-persons figure yet. No cross-border displacement indicators tied specifically to the earthquake have appeared in Colombia or elsewhere so far, though the toll leg of the call keeps firming.
• 16 Jul 26 No. 16 · revised to 88%
  The government toll rose again to 4,829 (from 4,734 two days earlier) per National Assembly President Rodríguez; still no confirmed cross-border displacement indicators in Colombia, but the toll leg of the compound call keeps firming.
• 17 Jul 26 No. 17 · revised to 90%
  The toll rose again to 4,930 from 4,829; still no confirmed cross-border displacement indicator in Colombia, but IOM's new El Niño warning adds a fresh risk vector to watch.
• 18 Jul 26 No. 18 · revised to 94%
  The confirmed toll climbed again to 5,069, roughly three and a half weeks after the quakes, with recovery crews still finding bodies; still no confirmed cross-border displacement indicator in Colombia.
• 23 Jul 26 No. 23 · revised to 96%
  Venezuela's official toll climbed again to 5,398 dead (16,740 injured) as of July 23, continuing its steady daily rise; the UN's humanitarian chief still estimates 50,000 unaccounted for, but no confirmed cross-border displacement indicator has yet appeared in Colombia.

What would overturn it

UN/IOM displacement reporting and official toll revisions; absence of new displacement signals.

The verdict

Miss  Resolved 3 Aug 26.

The death toll kept rising sharply through July (roughly 2,295 on July 1 to 5,546 by July 24-25), but Venezuela's own government did not further revise its missing-persons figure — it deliberately stopped issuing an official missing count after June 25, per National Assembly president Jorge Rodríguez — and no UN/IOM/OCHA reporting through July 31 documented actual cross-border displacement; IOM's director instead called to 'prevent' a future migration wave, framing it as a risk rather than an observed outflow.

Don't forecast that an internal-displacement crisis will produce cross-border displacement signals just because officials warn of the risk — IOM/OCHA 'could migrate' language is a caution, not an indicator; wait for an actual border-crossing or asylum-registration data point before counting displacement as materializing.

Source: https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/25/the-toll-of-the-tragedy-one-month-after-venezuelas-double-earthquake