De la Espriella (inaugurated 7 Aug) will begin his pledged 90-day military crackdown on armed groups within his first two weeks in office (by 21 Aug).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 20 Aug 26 Bloomberg/WaPo confirm de la Espriella has visibly begun the pledged offensive — an August 10 cross-border raid, an ELN drone retaliation, and public pledges to bomb camps and resume herbicide spraying — squarely within the two-week window.
What would overturn it
Executive orders or military-deployment announcements within two weeks of inauguration; a stand-down or delay.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 24 Aug 26.
Within days of his Aug 7 inauguration, De la Espriella's government ended 'Total Peace' dialogue, declared kinetic operations against armed groups, and conducted a border raid Aug 10 killing two ELN members — well inside the two-week window.
As logged at issue
Colombia's president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella — who has pledged a 90-day military crackdown on armed groups — is inaugurated August 7.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-02-01 — recorded 2 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-02-01.html