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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-02-02Hit

Peru's Fujimori government (inaugurated 28 July) will publicly signal continuity or warming of U.S. security cooperation by 15 August.

PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeru
Issued No. 2 · 2 Jul 26  ·  Due 15 Aug 26  ·  Opening call 60% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%2 Jul 26 — 60% (No. 2): Opening call1 Aug 26 — 90% (No. 32): Peru's foreign minister publicly announced Friday that Lima would advance formal entry into Shield of the Americas, a clear, stronger signal of warming U.S. …due 15 Aug 26Hit90%2 Jul 26

The record since

  • 1 Aug 26 No. 32 · revised to 90%
    Peru's foreign minister publicly announced Friday that Lima would advance formal entry into Shield of the Americas, a clear, stronger signal of warming U.S. security cooperation than the call anticipated.

What would overturn it

Early statements/agreements on U.S. cooperation; any cooling or non-alignment signal.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 17 Aug 26.

Deputy Secretary Landau attended Fujimori's July 28 inauguration; Secretary Rubio held a call with Fujimori (State Dept readout, ~July 30) reaffirming commitment to strengthen security cooperation, with follow-on plans for counter-narcotics cooperation via the Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition — clear continuity/warming signals inside the window, no cooling signal.

Source: https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/07/secretary-rubios-call-with-peruvian-president-fujimian

As logged at issue

Peru's president-elect Keiko Fujimori takes office July 28 … early security-cooperation signals with U.S. partners.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-02-02 — recorded 2 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-02-02.html