The U.S.–Iran ceasefire will hold and Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping volumes will keep recovering (no renewed closure or major disruption) through 31 July.

The trajectory

The record since

• 7 Jul 26 No. 7 · revised to 40%
  Iran's IRGC struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight July 6-7, one specifically for using the 'Omani route' — direct evidence against 'shipping volumes keep recovering'; Brent reversed part of its post-ceasefire drop.
• 8 Jul 26 No. 8 · revised to 10%
  The crisis crossed from shipping attacks into direct combat: Iran hit a third tanker (the Saudi supertanker Wedyan) specifically on the Omani bypass route, and hours later U.S. CENTCOM struck more than 80 Iranian targets while Treasury revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver — the opposite of 'shipping volumes keep recovering.'
• 10 Jul 26 No. 10 · revised to 5%
  Hormuz traffic has again ground to a near-halt, with no large vessel tracked crossing the U.S.-coordinated route since Tuesday — the opposite of a shipping recovery.
• 11 Jul 26 No. 11 · revised to 6%
  Diplomatic movement (Iran's private admission of fault, renewed Oman talks) hasn't yet translated into shipping recovery — Hormuz traffic remains near-halted. A Polymarket market on 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31' also prices this at 8%, close to our read.
• 12 Jul 26 No. 12 · revised to 4%
  The war widened again: Iran struck three Gulf Arab states directly and declared Hormuz closed while the U.S. hit ~140 targets. A ceasefire holding and shipping recovering by July 31 is now close to ruled out.
• 17 Jul 26 No. 17 · revised to 2%
  Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar all absorbed Iranian strikes today, confirming no ceasefire or shipping-volume recovery is underway.

What would overturn it

Ceasefire breakdown, tanker incidents, or a drop in Hormuz AIS/insurance volumes.

The verdict

Miss  Resolved 3 Aug 26.

The ceasefire framework had already broken down by early-to-mid July; the US and Iran traded strikes through the month (Iranian strikes hit Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and UAE-flagged tankers; US ran at least 8 consecutive nights of strikes), and Bloomberg reported Hormuz shipping traffic dwindling, not recovering, as of July 16 — both halves of the claim failed by July 31.

A ceasefire built on an unenforced MOU, inside an active multi-front war, is fragile — don't extend an early partial-reopening trend into a 'shipping keeps recovering' call without confirming the ceasefire's structural durability first; this is the same extrapolate-the-lull-as-resolution failure already flagged for the 2026-07-20 Doha-talks miss.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/iran-us-skirmishes-worsen-as-hormuz-shipping-traffic-dwindles