The EU will not conclude a finalized return-hub agreement with Rwanda or Uzbekistan before 30 September 2026; talks slip, as prior EU/UK third-country schemes have.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A signed return-hub agreement with either country before end-Q3.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 5 Oct 26.
No return-hub agreement with Rwanda or Uzbekistan was signed by Sept 30; five EU states say a first partner is targeted for end-2026/early 2027, and Uzbekistan denied any talks.
As logged at issue
EU member states aim to conclude first "return hub" agreements with Rwanda and/or Uzbekistan this year, targeting a 2027 start.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-03-04 — recorded 3 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-03-04.html