Paused U.S.-Iran Doha talks on the Strait of Hormuz will resume shortly after the funeral concludes, with the toll/fee dispute still unresolved.

The trajectory

The record since

• 10 Jul 26 No. 10 · revised to 30%
  Trump declared the ceasefire "over" after Iran struck Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar; active combat rather than a lull makes near-term resumption of the Doha toll talks look much less likely.
• 16 Jul 26 No. 16 · revised to 15%
  Active combat continues — the U.S. disabled a commercial tanker running the blockade July 15 and Iran is signaling a second chokepoint threat at Bab el-Mandeb — leaving no sign of the paused Doha toll talks resuming before the window closes.

What would overturn it

A failure to restart talks by mid-July would point to a harder Iranian line on Hormuz access.

The verdict

Miss  Resolved 20 Jul 26.

Talks did not resume after Khamenei's funeral; instead Iran escalated dramatically, with the IRGC declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed and attacking at least nine commercial tankers by mid-July, superseding the toll/fee dispute with outright military contest for control of the strait.

When a paused negotiation sits inside an active-conflict trajectory, weight the harder-line counter-signal more heavily -- a resumption call needs the underlying military track to be de-escalating, not just a diplomatic pause ending.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis