The RSF's el-Obeid offensive will intensify over the next one to two weeks, and a mass-casualty assault on the scale of El Fasher would trigger a fresh cross-border displacement wave toward Chad and Egypt.

The trajectory

The record since

• 20 Jul 26 No. 20 · revised to 75%
  The RSF and Sudan's army have both shifted to more advanced drones and continued operations through the rainy season — previously a lull period — per UN reporting, the clearest sign yet the el-Obeid offensive is intensifying, though no mass-casualty trigger or cross-border movement toward Chad/Egypt has been confirmed.
• 22 Jul 26 No. 22 · revised to 78%
  A drone strike on Ar Rahad market killed six and a cholera outbreak was declared across four states on top of the siege, matching the pre-el-Fasher infrastructure-strike pattern, though no mass-casualty ground assault or confirmed cross-border movement into Chad or Egypt has occurred yet.
• 26 Jul 26 No. 26 · revised to 80%
  The RSF massed hundreds of vehicles near Tina, the army's last significant Darfur stronghold, and struck it with a drone attack while cross-border strikes hit refugee camps inside Chad, though no confirmed mass-casualty ground assault or cross-border displacement wave has been reported yet.
• 27 Jul 26 No. 27 · revised to 20%
  Sudan's army broke the RSF's nearly two-year siege of El Obeid on July 26, linking up its 18th and 5th Infantry Divisions and securing the full 350km Omdurman-El Obeid road after destroying 73 RSF vehicles -- a sharp reversal of the intensifying-offensive trajectory this call was tracking, with no mass-casualty assault or confirmed cross-border displacement wave having occurred.

What would overturn it

A large-scale RSF assault on el-Obeid and a corresponding spike in cross-border movement toward Chad/Egypt.

The verdict

Miss  Resolved 27 Jul 26.

RSF drone strikes and shelling around el-Obeid continued through late July, including a July 24 attack on Burbur (15 killed, 7 injured) that Sudanese forces repelled. No mass-casualty ground assault on el-Obeid at El-Fasher scale occurred; by July 27 the army had retaken the Khartoum-el-Obeid highway and pushed the RSF back, easing rather than tightening the siege. No distinct new cross-border displacement spike toward Chad/Egypt was tied to an el-Obeid atrocity -- reported flows continued the existing regional trend.

A UN 'red alert' warning of an imminent worst-case assault is not itself evidence the assault will reach that scale -- weigh the besieging force's actual momentum (here, the army was gaining ground, not losing it) before extrapolating a feared scenario into a call.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/27/sudans-army-claims-control-of-major-highway-linking-khartoum-and-el-obeid