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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-05-04Open

China maintains a recurring, rotating coast-guard patrol presence east of Taiwan (a replacement vessel on station within any 30-day gap) through early January 2027.

National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina
Issued No. 5 · 5 Jul 26  ·  Due 5 Jan 27  ·  Opening call 85% — very likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%5 Jul 26 — 85% (No. 5): Opening calltodaydue 5 Jan 2785%5 Jul 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A sustained gap of more than 30 days with no replacement vessel on station east of Taiwan would indicate the posture was temporary rather than a standing fixture.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 5 Jan 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Taiwan tracks record Chinese vessel count as Beijing confirms permanent patrol rotation

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-05-04 — recorded 5 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-05-04.html