RSF forces close el-Obeid's last open route (the eastern corridor) within 30 days.

The trajectory

The record since

• 7 Jul 26 No. 7 · revised to 65%
  UN officials now say RSF controls every route into el-Obeid except the eastern corridor toward Kosti, calling the window to prevent a full siege 'rapidly narrowing' — raises the odds the last route closes within the 30-day window.
• 12 Jul 26 No. 12 · revised to 70%
  UNICEF now warns 500,000 civilians are at immediate risk as the RSF intensifies its el-Obeid campaign, tightening the siege and raising the odds the last open route (the eastern corridor) closes within the window.
• 28 Jul 26 No. 28 · revised to 20%
  Sudan's army linked its 18th and 5th Infantry Divisions to break the siege and retake the Khartoum-El Obeid export highway on July 26 -- the opposite trajectory from a route closure -- and RSF drone strikes on El Obeid the next day hit only municipal buildings, consistent with retaliation rather than a renewed push to close the route.
• 29 Jul 26 No. 29 · revised to 22%
  Sudan's army additionally recaptured Bara on July 25 and still holds the Khartoum-El Obeid export highway, but RSF forces remain within 40 km of El Obeid and continue drone strikes, with Hemedti reportedly ordering commanders to push forward rather than retreat -- keeping the closure risk from receding further even as the corridor itself stays open.

What would overturn it

UN, ACLED, or wire reporting of the eastern corridor out of el-Obeid being cut off to civilian and aid movement before August 5; continued movement through that corridor past that date would suggest the army is still holding the line there.

The verdict

Miss  Resolved 10 Aug 26.

RSF did not close el-Obeid's eastern (Kosti) corridor -- it remained the main artery for the city's ~600,000 residents throughout the window despite intensified RSF drone strikes on the road, and the Sudanese army separately retook the Omdurman-El Obeid road (Jul 26-28), opening a second route rather than the city losing its last one.

RSF drone pressure on the corridor was read as building toward closure, but sustained interdiction without actual severance is a different threshold than closure; the army's counter-gain on a separate axis was the opposite of the assumed encirclement trajectory.

Source: https://www.newarab.com/news/sudan-army-retakes-key-route-el-obeids-ordeal-continues