Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal levels by December 31, 2026.

The trajectory

The record since

• 9 Jul 26 No. 9 · revised to 55%
  The war widened rather than narrowed: CENTCOM struck a second, larger wave of roughly 90 targets and Iran retaliated against Bahrain, Kuwait, and — for the first time — Qatar. Hormuz transits are down roughly 95% and war-risk premiums are running 8–12x normal, which cuts against a clean return to normal shipping levels by year-end even though the horizon remains distant enough that recovery still edges out non-recovery.
• 12 Jul 26 No. 12 · revised to 45%
  Iran's formal closure declaration and direct strikes on the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain deepen the disruption; with transits near-halted and war-risk premiums many times normal, a clean return to normal Hormuz shipping by year-end now looks slightly less likely than not.
• 16 Jul 26 No. 16 · revised to 35%
  Iran is now signaling a second chokepoint threat at Bab el-Mandeb alongside continued Hormuz strikes, including the first U.S. hit on a commercial tanker, further reducing the odds shipping normalizes by year-end.
• 24 Jul 26 No. 24 · revised to 30%
  Bab el-Mandeb going live alongside Hormuz, plus Trump weighing a larger strike, keeps the disruption path open even though today's fresh attacks were on the Red Sea front specifically; a liquid prediction market (Polymarket, ~52% as of today) is notably more optimistic, but the last two weeks' trajectory has consistently outpaced that kind of forecast.
• 5 Aug 26 No. 36 · revised to 35%
  Polymarket's 'Hormuz traffic normal by Dec 31' contract has moved to 62% (from ~52% previously cited), a real market shift toward optimism, but actual transit counts have not moved and this week added a new vessel sinking -- we're raising our own estimate modestly while staying well below the market, consistent with this brief's skepticism on reopening calls having been vindicated repeatedly since July.

What would overturn it

Daily Hormuz transit counts (tracked by maritime-security firms and cited in market reporting) returning to the pre-crisis baseline; a further Yemen- or Iran-linked escalation pushing daily transits materially below current suppressed levels into the fourth quarter would overturn this call.

Against the market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Market snapshot 72% on 6 Jul 26.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.