Neither Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar nor Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar will be captured, killed, or surrendered to authorities within 90 days.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A confirmed arrest, death, or surrender announcement by Mexican or U.S. authorities for either brother would overturn this; continued fugitive status through the window, even amid surrender rumors, would confirm it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 6 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
It's roughly even odds whether either of the last two Chapitos brothers is captured or surrenders within 90 days — Los Angeles Times surrender-talk reporting remains unconfirmed, and Mexican and U.S. pressure has intensified with sanctions and the Rocha Moya indictment, but the brothers have evaded capture for years; a confirmed arrest or surrender would be the signal this call was wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-08-03 — recorded 8 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-08-03.html