Sudan's army and the RSF will not sign a truce under the U.S. 90-day peace plan within 30 days of publication.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 14 Jul 26 Sudan's Security and Defense Council said it reached an internal response to the U.S. 90-day peace plan conditioning acceptance on full RSF withdrawal from occupied cities, while the RSF separately said it "received and welcomed" the proposal without detail — both sides maneuvering short of signing, consistent with the no-truce call.
What would overturn it
A joint signing announcement or a published partial/phased RSF withdrawal timetable from Sudan's cities would overturn the call; continued rejection or silence past August 9 confirms it.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 10 Aug 26.
No signing occurred by Aug 9. Sudan's army continued to condition any deal on full RSF withdrawal from every city seized since May 2023; the RSF accepted a truce in principle but rejected the withdrawal terms, and agreement remained out of reach through the window.
As logged at issue
Sudan: the army and RSF will likely not sign a truce under Washington's 90-day peace plan within 30 days — the army's demand for full RSF withdrawal from every occupied city goes well beyond RSF's vague welcome of the proposal; a joint signing announcement or a published phased-withdrawal timetable would be the signal this call is wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-10-01 — recorded 10 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-10-01.html