Iran will publicly acknowledge the Strait of Hormuz tanker strikes as a mistake and declare the waterway open to commercial traffic within two weeks.

The trajectory

The record since

• 12 Jul 26 No. 12 · revised to 25%
  Iran formally declared Hormuz closed and struck the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain directly as the U.S. hit ~140 sites - an escalation that makes a near-term Iranian acknowledgment of the tanker strikes and a reopening of the waterway within two weeks much less likely.
• 13 Jul 26 No. 13 · revised to 15%
  A fresh wave of U.S. strikes brought Iran's first confirmed domestic casualties (Farur Island, Mahshahr) and Tehran continues to declare Hormuz closed with no acknowledgment of error - both cut further against a near-term Iranian climbdown and reopening within the original two-week window.
• 15 Jul 26 No. 15 · revised to 8%
  Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan on July 15 and vowed to close every export corridor benefiting the U.S. and its allies, not just Hormuz — further evidence against a public climbdown and reopening within the original two-week window.
• 16 Jul 26 No. 16 · revised to 4%
  The U.S. Navy disabled a tanker (M/T Belma) attempting to breach the Hormuz blockade July 15 — the first such strike on commercial shipping in this conflict — moving further from any public climbdown and reopening within the original window.
• 17 Jul 26 No. 17 · revised to 2%
  The war widened sharply overnight — bridges struck, three Gulf hosts hit in retaliation — moving further from any public climbdown or reopening.

What would overturn it

A public Iranian statement (via state media or its UN mission) declaring Hormuz open and renouncing further attacks would confirm; a collapse of the Oman channel, or continued Iranian silence past two weeks, would overturn it.

The verdict

Miss  Resolved 27 Jul 26.

Iran never issued the predicted acknowledgment or reopening declaration. Instead the Hormuz crisis intensified after July 11: further coordinated tanker strikes hit on July 14 and July 20, the Strait remained functionally closed through the resolve-by date, and while Oman-brokered talks resumed July 24-25 with reported 'progress,' they produced no Iranian statement declaring the waterway open or renouncing further attacks by July 25.

A 'both delegations are back at the table' signal does not itself predict a fast, cooperative climbdown in an active-conflict trajectory -- the surrounding military track (continued strikes) mattered more than the existence of a diplomatic channel. Matches the recurring lesson already on file about weighing conflict trajectory over stated reasons for a pause.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/24/oman-talking-with-tehran-on-hormuz-as-us-and-iran-continue-strikes