CJNG's newly designated leader, Juan Carlos Valencia González ('El 03'), will not be captured, arrested, or confirmed killed within 12 months of this designation.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A DOJ indictment unsealing an arrest, an extradition, or a Mexican/U.S. government confirmation of his death would overturn this; continued at-large status past July 2027 would confirm it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 11 Jul 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Longer horizon: CJNG's newly named leader, Juan Carlos Valencia González, will likely evade capture or killing for at least the next year, given his low public profile and the cartel's diffuse regional power structure — an arrest or a confirmed strike against him would be the signal this call was too cautious.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-11-03 — recorded 11 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-11-03.html