A formal ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between Iran and the U.S./Gulf states will be in place by 12 January 2027.

The trajectory

The record since

• 19 Jul 26 No. 19 · revised to 50%
  Iran's July 18 strike on Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base — the war's first hit on a fifth land-bordered host beyond the Gulf states, killing two U.S. troops — widened the conflict's geographic scope for the first time in weeks, a trend that cuts against consolidation toward a ceasefire within the window.
• 24 Jul 26 No. 24 · revised to 40%
  Trump's public statement that he is 'close' to ordering a 'massive attack' bigger than the war's opening night, on top of a second live chokepoint at Bab el-Mandeb, points toward further escalation rather than the consolidation a ceasefire by mid-January would require.
• 21 Sep 26 No. 83 · revised to 30%
  Iran's central command warned of new US/allied attack preparations and vowed sustained retaliation, Trump abruptly cut short his Camp David weekend, and the State Department issued a fresh Mideast escalation alert -- mutual warnings pointing toward renewed conflict rather than the consolidation a ceasefire would require.
• 26 Sep 26 No. 88 · revised to 35%
  Trump rejected Iran's Qatari-mediated offer to reopen Hormuz within seven days, per WSJ reporting he told aides to expect renewed strikes after the November midterms -- closing the clearest diplomatic off-ramp and pushing a ceasefire by January further out of reach.

What would overturn it

A publicly announced ceasefire, truce, or cessation-of-hostilities agreement; conversely, a fresh major exchange after any lull would cut against it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 12 Jan 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.