Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council will not publish a finalized electoral calendar with a firm nationwide election date within 30 days of publication.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
The CEP publishing a revised electoral calendar that names a fixed election day.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 17 Aug 26.
Haiti's CEP published its official 2026-2027 electoral calendar around July 27-28, naming Dec 13, 2026 as the firm first-round election date (runoff Feb 21, 2027), with a full registration/campaign schedule — inside the 30-day window and exactly the counter-signal event.
A stated institutional-capacity caveat ('conditional on security/financing') in a call's own reasoning doesn't lower the bar the counter-signal actually set — the call only required CEP to publish a calendar naming a firm date, and it did, caveats notwithstanding. Weigh an institution's stated intent to hit a legal/constitutional deadline (Haiti's charter required elections) as seriously as its track record of past delay.
Source: https://haitiantimes.com/2026/07/28/haiti-elections-set-dec-13-first-round/
As logged at issue
Haiti: the electoral council will likely not publish a finalized calendar with a firm nationwide election date within 30 days, given the unadopted budget and a long record of slippage; a published calendar naming an election day would be the signal this call is wrong.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-12-03 — recorded 12 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-12-03.html