No confirmed Bundibugyo-virus Ebola case will be recorded outside DR Congo and Uganda within 30 days of publication.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola case in a third country beyond DR Congo and Uganda.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 17 Aug 26.
The only third-country hospitalization (two US aid workers evacuated to Germany) traces to diagnoses WHO attributes to DR Congo itself ('cases diagnosed in DRC and subsequently treated in Germany'); the second worker's positive test (July 10) also predates the ~July 12 window start. No case was laboratory-confirmed in a third country within the window.
Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON615
As logged at issue
DR Congo Ebola: no confirmed Bundibugyo case will be recorded outside DR Congo and Uganda within 30 days - likely, as prior outbreaks have largely stayed contained at borders; a confirmed case in a third country would overturn the call and signal a wider regional emergency.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-12-04 — recorded 12 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-12-04.html