The EU will fall short of full unanimous approval of its complete 21st Russia sanctions package (including the maritime services ban) at or around its 13 July foreign ministers' meeting, even if a narrower price-cap-only measure is pushed through separately to beat the 15 July automatic revision deadline.

The trajectory

The record since

• 14 Jul 26 No. 14 · revised to 80%
  The 13 July FAC meeting concluded without full-package agreement; Kallas called the sides "quite close" but confirmed no deal, with talks continuing toward the 15 July deadline. The EU adopted a separate, unrelated Russia cyber-sanctions package the same day rather than a Russia-package stopgap — confirming the core call but leaving open whether any narrower measure lands by 15 July.

What would overturn it

Full unanimous adoption of the complete 21st package (maritime services ban included) on or before 15 July would overturn this; a further delay, a price-cap-only carve-out, or a split package would confirm it.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 20 Jul 26.

EU foreign ministers failed to reach unanimous agreement on the complete 21st Russia sanctions package (maritime services ban still unresolved) by the 15-16 July deadline -- Greece blocked over LNG/shipping carve-outs after Bulgaria's earlier veto threat was withdrawn -- and instead merely froze the oil price cap at $44.10/barrel for a week, pushing talks to 23 July.

Source: https://kyivindependent.com/eus-russian-oil-price-cap-extended-for-a-week-as-sanctions-negotiations-remain-blocked/