The U.S. will conduct kinetic strikes on Iranian power-generation or bridge/transportation infrastructure by July 25.

The trajectory

The record since

• 17 Jul 26 No. 17 · revised to 90%
  CENTCOM struck bridges at Bandar Khamir and a train station at Bandar Abbas during a sixth night of strikes; only whether rail/bridge infrastructure fully satisfies the original claim (versus a dedicated power-plant strike) keeps this short of full resolution.
• 20 Jul 26 No. 20 · revised to 95%
  CENTCOM's ninth consecutive night of strikes explicitly targeted maritime and infrastructure-adjacent capabilities, extending the campaign that already hit bridges and a train station days earlier.

What would overturn it

A confirmed U.S. strike on an Iranian power plant, electrical grid asset, or bridge by July 25 would confirm this; a pause in strikes or a return to negotiations without such a strike would overturn it.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 27 Jul 26.

U.S. strikes on July 17, 2026 destroyed five to six bridges and a road tunnel in Hormozgan province and directly struck a power plant on Kish Island, plus power/desalination infrastructure at Jask -- days ahead of the July 25 resolve-by date, contributing to roughly 4,200 MW of Iranian generation capacity knocked offline by mid-July.

Source: https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/gulf/2026/07/18/iran-hits-second-power-and-water-plant-in-kuwait-after-another-night-of-us-strikes/