At least one of the five OECS nations named in the EU's citizenship-by-investment ultimatum (Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia) will publicly commit to concrete CBI phase-out legislation within 12 months.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A parliamentary bill, cabinet decision, or formal phase-out timeline announced by any of the five would confirm it; continued joint resistance and a push for negotiated carve-outs instead would keep this open or resolve it false.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 19 Jul 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Caribbean citizenship: the EU's June-2028 deadline for ending citizenship-by-investment programs gives the five OECS states room to stall, so whether any one breaks from their united resistance to commit to real phase-out legislation within a year is roughly a coin flip. A concrete phase-out bill or cabinet decision from any of the five would say this call was right.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-19-04 — recorded 19 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-19-04.html