The Houthis will not conduct an actual attack on Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb shipping within the next two weeks unless the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid specifically.

The trajectory

The record since

• 21 Jul 26 No. 21 · revised to 35%
  The Houthis moved from posture to declared action: they announced an immediate naval blockade of Saudi Arabia via Bab el-Mandeb on July 20, framed as retaliation for a Saudi-led strike on Sanaa airport, independent of the U.S.-grid trigger this call's premise turned on — lowering the odds Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb shipping goes two weeks without an actual attack.
• 22 Jul 26 No. 22 · revised to 30%
  Saudi-bound tankers are now making confirmed U-turns rather than testing the blockade, and war-risk insurance has roughly doubled to about 0.75% of ship value -- the market is already pricing the threat as credible before any vessel has actually been struck, raising the odds a test-case attack follows if a ship does not comply.
• 23 Jul 26 No. 23 · revised to 3%
  The no-attack claim is now essentially overtaken by events: the Houthis struck the Encelia and Layla on July 22, the first confirmed hit on commercial shipping in the corridor since the blockade was declared.

What would overturn it

Any confirmed Houthi missile, drone, or naval attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb; or a U.S. strike on Iranian power-generation infrastructure, which per Iran's own instruction to the Houthis would be the trigger for a shift to armed action.

The verdict

Miss  Resolved 3 Aug 26.

The conditional trigger fired — CENTCOM struck Iranian power-generation infrastructure around July 17 — and the Houthis then followed through, claiming missile attacks on the Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla (July 22) and NCC Ghazal (July 28), both in the Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb corridor within the window.

When an actor has publicly pre-committed to a specific trigger for armed action, treat the trigger's occurrence as the operative signal, not the actor's general restraint to date — once Iran's stated condition (a US strike on its power grid) was met, the Houthi threat converted to action within days.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/22/yemens-houthis-claim-attack-on-two-saudi-oil-tankers