The EU's 21st Russia sanctions package is adopted at the July 22 Brussels meeting, but the proposed personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov are dropped or materially watered down from the version originally proposed, rather than adopted intact.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 23 Jul 26 EU governments agreed on July 23 (one day after the July 22 Brussels meeting) to a 21st sanctions package that drops the proposed personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov under Bulgarian and Italian pressure, confirming the call's core prediction; Greece also secured an LNG exemption and France/Germany blocked a Russian seafood ban.
What would overturn it
Whether the EU's finalized 21st-package sanctions list, once published this week, includes personal designations for Kirill and Alekperov as originally proposed, or a carve-out/removal negotiated with Bulgaria and Italy.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 27 Jul 26.
The EU adopted its 21st Russia sanctions package around the July 22 Brussels meeting, but the personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov were dropped from the final text, along with energy (Greek LNG) and seafood carve-outs -- exactly the watered-down outcome the call anticipated.
Source: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/23/eu-agrees-21st-sanctions-package-against-russia-a93317
As logged at issue
The EU's 21st Russia sanctions package is adopted at today's Brussels meeting, but we lean toward the proposed personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov being dropped or watered down from the final text -- roughly even odds, given how much of the package has already been carved back -- unless Bulgaria and Italy withdraw their objections in the final hours.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-22-01 — recorded 22 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-22-01.html