The Houthis will strike at least one more Saudi-linked commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea corridor within two weeks of the July 22 attacks on the Encelia and Layla.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 29 Jul 26 Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed a further missile strike on a Saudi-linked tanker in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor on July 28, with UKMTO confirming the vessel's master reported an explosion -- the follow-on strike this call anticipated, though vessel and crew were reported safe.
What would overturn it
A second confirmed vessel strike in the corridor, versus a negotiated Saudi safe-passage arrangement or a Houthi stand-down.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 10 Aug 26.
The Houthis continued striking Saudi-linked shipping beyond the Jul 22 attacks, claiming up to eight tanker attacks since their blockade announcement, including the tanker Wafa off Yanbu on Aug 5 -- within the two-week window and with no Saudi safe-passage deal or Houthi stand-down.
As logged at issue
We think it likely the Houthis strike at least one more Saudi-linked commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor within two weeks of today's first confirmed hits on the Encelia and Layla, unless Saudi Arabia negotiates a de-facto safe-passage arrangement through Omani or Emirati intermediaries.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-23-01 — recorded 23 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-23-01.html