The EU will propose or adopt a supplementary Russia-sanctions measure specifically targeting the shadow fleet, LNG trade, or the Kirill/Alekperov carve-outs within two months of the watered-down 21st package.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A formal European Commission proposal or a unilateral member-state measure narrowing today's carve-outs, versus the 21st package standing unamended through September.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 23 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
We think it likely the EU proposes or adopts a supplementary Russia-sanctions measure specifically targeting the shadow fleet, LNG trade, or today's Kirill/Alekperov carve-outs within two months, rather than letting the watered-down 21st package stand unamended through September.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-23-02 — recorded 23 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-23-02.html