The U.S. carries out a strike wave on Iran within 14 days that officials or credible reporting describe as larger in scale than the war's opening night.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 31 Jul 26 The U.S. carried out a two-hour 'heavy wave' of strikes on dozens of IRGC targets across Iran on July 30, credible reporting's strongest candidate yet for a wave larger than the war's opening night.
What would overturn it
A multi-target U.S. strike wave on Iran, or official confirmation of an expanded target set, within 14 days of publication; a continuation of the same steady nightly-strike tempo without a discernible escalation, or a diplomatic de-escalation, would overturn this call.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 10 Aug 26.
The one major escalation in the window, the Jul 29-30 'heavy wave,' hit only dozens of IRGC targets across six provinces -- far below the opening night's ~900 strikes in 12 hours -- and was not described by officials or reporting as larger than opening night; by Aug 7, three consecutive nights had passed without US strikes and Iran had announced halting retaliatory operations amid a draft Hormuz deal with Oman.
Retaliatory tempo was assumed to keep ratcheting toward a record-scale wave; the model didn't weight that a single sharp 'heavy wave' could substitute for sustained escalation and then give way to parallel diplomatic off-ramps.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/08/world/live-news/iran-war-trump
As logged at issue
Trump says he's 'close' to ordering a 'massive attack' on Iran, bigger than ever before, even as the war continues its 13th consecutive night of nightly strikes.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-24-01 — recorded 24 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-24-01.html