The Saudi-led coalition strikes Hodeidah port itself, not just nearby Houthi military sites, within two weeks of July 25, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A coalition strike directly on port infrastructure (cranes, berths, fuel storage) at Hodeidah port, versus continued restraint limited to military/telecom sites nearby.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 10 Aug 26.
Coalition strikes in the window hit Houthi military and telecommunications sites in Hodeidah governorate, but the Saudi Ministry of Defense/coalition spokesman explicitly stated the port itself was not targeted, and the port continued receiving commercial vessels throughout.
A single round of strikes near port facilities was extrapolated into an imminent direct hit on port infrastructure, underweighting the coalition's own incentive to preserve port throughput and avoid a humanitarian-crisis narrative.
As logged at issue
We think it's roughly a coin flip that the Saudi-led coalition strikes Hodeidah port directly, not just nearby military sites, within two weeks, since spokesman al-Malki's insistence the port wasn't targeted this time reads as a line still held rather than one already crossed.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-25-01 — recorded 25 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-25-01.html