Alejandro Arias Monge ('El Diablo') is extradited to the United States within six months of his July 25, 2026 capture.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A formal U.S. extradition request filed with and granted by Costa Rican courts, versus Arias being tried in Costa Rica first or extradition stalling.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 25 Jan 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
We think it's likely that Alejandro Arias Monge (“El Diablo”) is extradited to the United States within six months of today's capture, given the $500,000 U.S. reward on his head and Costa Rica's recent record of fast-tracking extraditions for cartel-linked fugitives.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-25-02 — recorded 25 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-25-02.html