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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-25-03Open

The Andean Court of Justice orders an interim suspension of Peru's REINFO informal-mining program within its 40-day response window (by approximately September 3, 2026).

Illicit Trade / Econ SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanPeru
Issued No. 25 · 25 Jul 26  ·  Due 3 Sep 26  ·  Opening call 25% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%25 Jul 26 — 25% (No. 25): Opening calltodaydue 3 Sep 2625%25 Jul 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A published Andean Court interim-measures order suspending or materially restricting REINFO, versus the court deferring action pending Peru's full response or a later merits ruling.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 3 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

We think it's unlikely that the Andean Court of Justice orders an interim suspension of Peru's REINFO program within its 40-day response window, since Lima has extended the informal-mining shield repeatedly for years and a supranational court has no fast enforcement mechanism to compel compliance.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-25-03 — recorded 25 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-25-03.html