The Andean Court of Justice orders an interim suspension of Peru's REINFO informal-mining program within its 40-day response window (by approximately September 3, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A published Andean Court interim-measures order suspending or materially restricting REINFO, versus the court deferring action pending Peru's full response or a later merits ruling.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 7 Sep 26.
As of the most recent coverage near the Sept 3 deadline, the Andean Court of Justice's precautionary-measures request against Peru's REINFO program was still described as pending, with no published interim-suspension order — the court deferred rather than acted within its response window.
Another instance of the recurring 'hard deadline is an off-ramp, not a cliff' pattern already logged in forecast_lessons.md — a court-imposed response window lapsed with deferral rather than the forced action the call bet on.
As logged at issue
We think it's unlikely that the Andean Court of Justice orders an interim suspension of Peru's REINFO program within its 40-day response window, since Lima has extended the informal-mining shield repeatedly for years and a supranational court has no fast enforcement mechanism to compel compliance.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-25-03 — recorded 25 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-25-03.html