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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-26-02Hit

Liberia's government names or charges at least one additional police or port official in the $317 million cocaine case within 30 days, beyond Deputy Commissioner Johnny Dean's dismissal.

Transnational Organized CrimeAfrica / Middle EastLiberia
Issued No. 26 · 26 Jul 26  ·  Due 25 Aug 26  ·  Opening call 60% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%26 Jul 26 — 60% (No. 26): Opening call1 Aug 26 — 95% (No. 32): Liberia's president fired a dozen officials -- including police, airport, and intelligence personnel -- well beyond Deputy Commissioner Johnny Dean's earlier…due 25 Aug 26Hit95%26 Jul 26

The record since

  • 1 Aug 26 No. 32 · revised to 95%
    Liberia's president fired a dozen officials -- including police, airport, and intelligence personnel -- well beyond Deputy Commissioner Johnny Dean's earlier dismissal, squarely satisfying this call's threshold.

What would overturn it

A named additional arrest, charge, or dismissal in Liberian police or port-authority ranks tied to the case, versus the investigation stalling with Dean as the only official implicated.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 31 Aug 26.

Liberia charged additional named officials — LNP Financial Crime Division chief Anthony T. Blaye and Highway Patrol Section chief Wadell W. Kwarbo, accused of escorting the shipment in marked police vehicles — within days, and the case widened further with former VP Jewel Howard-Taylor charged by mid-August.

Source: https://allafrica.com/stories/202607310165.html

As logged at issue

We think it's likely that Liberia names or charges at least one more police or port official in the $317 million cocaine case within a month, since investigators have already said the network operated for six years and would need more than one inside contact to survive that long.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-26-02 — recorded 26 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-26-02.html