Strait of Hormuz daily commercial vessel transits will not climb back above 25 ships a day by August 31, despite the Iran-Oman technical talks on safe passage.

The trajectory

The record since

• 4 Aug 26 No. 35 · revised to 72%
  A fourth maritime-security incident near the Musandam Peninsula in five days (the Minoan Pioneer strike, Aug 3, with a crew member missing) and Saudi Arabia standing up a defensive shipping coalition both point to continued suppression of transit volumes through August 31 rather than a rebound above 25 ships a day.
• 5 Aug 26 No. 36 · revised to 78%
  Tuesday's Rubio 'progress' claims on a Hormuz reopening deal have not moved actual UKMTO-tracked traffic, which is still running near a trickle, and fresh violence (the Faize Noore Oliya sinking and a new Houthi claim against the Saudi tanker Wafaa) reinforces continued suppression rather than a rebound toward 25+ ships/day by August 31.
• 9 Aug 26 No. 40 · revised to 82%
  The August 8 ADNOC tanker strike and Iran's maximalist reopening demands both point away from a near-term traffic rebound, keeping daily Hormuz transits on track to stay below 25 ships/day through August 31.
• 12 Aug 26 No. 43 · revised to 90%
  Kpler ship-tracking data cited by Reuters put Monday's Strait of Hormuz traffic at just six to seven vessels -- far below the roughly 11-12/day recent average and well under the 25-ship threshold this call bets against -- reinforcing the call with nearly three weeks still to run before August 31.
• 14 Aug 26 No. 45 · revised to 88%
  CNBC-cited shipping data show only three Hormuz transits in the 24 hours ending August 12, far below the 25-ship threshold and reinforcing that transits stay suppressed through August 31.
• 17 Aug 26 No. 48 · revised to 95%
  Hormuz transits collapsed to 5 vessels Saturday and zero Sunday, versus 31 the prior weekend, per ship-tracking data cited by Reuters -- a new low that pushes this call (transits stay below 25/day through August 31) further from being overturned.
• 18 Aug 26 No. 49 · revised to 75%
  The 60-day US-Iran MOU formally expired August 18 with no deal and no extension in sight, and Trump renewed threats against mediator Oman -- removing the near-term diplomatic path that could have restored transits, while Monday's count (six ships vs. a 10-day average of 11, zero VLCC/LNG movement) shows transits still nowhere near 25/day.
• 30 Aug 26 No. 61 · revised to 80%
  CENTCOM disclosed for the first time that it has redirected 82 commercial vessels, disabled three, and boarded two under its blockade posture, while independent tracking put daily Hormuz transits at a three-month low — both point further away from a rebound to 25+ ships/day before the August 31 deadline.

What would overturn it

Kpler or EIA daily transit counts for the Strait of Hormuz; a joint Iran-Oman statement on a concrete safe-passage protocol, versus continued Iranian statements that there has been 'no change in the status of navigation.'

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 31 Aug 26.

Daily commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz never approached 25/day despite Iran-Oman technical talks: Kpler-type counts show single-to-low-double-digit transits throughout August (around 12.4/day average Aug 1-19, falling to single digits by Aug 25), versus a pre-war baseline near 130/day.

Source: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/08/ships-passing-through-hormuz-hover-single-digits-data-shows