The RSF's siege of El-Fasher, North Darfur, will not be lifted by June 30, 2027, despite the Sudanese army's July 26 breakthrough at El Obeid.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Confirmed Sudanese army entry into El-Fasher or a verified RSF withdrawal from siege positions around the city, versus the siege continuing through the resolution date.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 30 Jun 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Looking further out, we think it's likely the RSF's siege of El-Fasher is still not lifted by June 30, 2027, since Darfur remains almost entirely RSF-held territory and Sudan's own finance minister described the El Obeid breakthrough as a springboard rather than the start of the Darfur campaign itself.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-27-03 — recorded 27 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-27-03.html