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The Tabularium · Call 2026-07-28-04Open

Peru's Fujimori government formally reopens any part of the Chancay port concession terms within 12 months of her inauguration.

PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeruChinaUnited States
Issued No. 28 · 28 Jul 26  ·  Due 28 Jul 27  ·  Opening call 45% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%28 Jul 26 — 45% (No. 28): Opening calltodaydue 28 Jul 2745%28 Jul 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A public move to renegotiate COSCO's operating terms, a formal U.S. request tied to port access, or an explicit statement ruling that out; her stated intent to deepen U.S. ties pulls one way, COSCO's contractual lock-in and Beijing's trade leverage pull the other.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 28 Jul 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Fujimori has said she will deepen U.S. alignment while preserving commercial ties with Beijing, centered on the Chinese-operated Chancay megaport.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-28-04 — recorded 28 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-28-04.html