The Houthis will publish a toll/fee schedule or begin actually collecting payments from commercial shipping transiting Bab el-Mandeb within 60 days of the July 29 report of the scheme.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A published fee schedule, a confirmed collected payment, or a named collection authority reported by a shipping-industry or wire source by September 28. No such mechanism appearing within the window would confirm the scheme stalled at the design stage.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 28 Sep 26.
The Houthis publicly denied (Aug 1) any plan to charge Bab el-Mandeb transit fees and insisted passage remained free; by Sept 28 no published toll schedule, confirmed collected payment, or named collection authority had been reported by any shipping-industry or wire source, even as reporting described the Houthis 'tightening their grip' on the strait in other ways (blockade enforcement, targeting).
The scheme's own architects (Houthi officials) disavowed it on the record within the window, which should have been a stronger early signal that the 'Hormuz playbook' toll plan was more trial balloon than operational plan.
Source: https://thehill.com/policy/international/6004086-houthi-denies-bab-el-mandeb-tolls/
As logged at issue
We think it's unlikely that the Houthis actually publish a fee schedule or begin collecting Red Sea tolls from commercial shipping within two months, since the scheme remains at the design stage with Iranian advisers still building out the collection authority -- unless that framework comes together faster than reported.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-30-01 — recorded 30 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-30-01.html