Ecuadorian authorities formally attribute the July 27 Cañar killings to a specific gang (Los Lobos, Los Águilas, or another named group) within 30 days.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A prosecutor or police statement formally naming the responsible gang, reported by Ecuadorian press, by August 29. No formal attribution within that window would suggest the false-flag ambiguity is holding up the case.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 31 Aug 26.
By late August, Ecuadorian authorities had not formally attributed the July 27 La Troncal killings to any named gang; graffiti referencing Los Lobos was treated as a possible deliberate false flag, with only an unofficial police-source theory of an internal Los Águilas dispute, never elevated to a formal prosecutorial finding.
The forecast underestimated how deliberately staged false-flag evidence (rival-gang graffiti) would stall formal attribution rather than accelerate it, and conflated informal police-source leaks with an official fiscalía finding.
As logged at issue
We think it's roughly even whether Ecuadorian authorities formally attribute the Cañar killings to a specific gang within a month, since investigators already suspect the Los Lobos graffiti is a false flag tied to Los Águilas' territory, a complication that could stall attribution well past the usual pace.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-30-03 — recorded 30 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-30-03.html