Iran conducts at least one more direct strike attempt on Jordanian or Kuwaiti territory within two weeks of the July 30 attacks (by August 13).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A reported Iranian missile or drone launch at Jordanian or Kuwaiti territory (intercepted or not), confirmed by that country's military or a wire service, by August 13. No further strike attempt within the window would overturn the call.
The verdict
Hit Resolved 17 Aug 26.
On Aug 8, 2026, Iran launched missiles and drones at Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan (following a 13th night of U.S. strikes), with Iranian state media specifying hits on U.S. assets at Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base and Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base — a confirmed, wire-reported strike on both named countries inside the two-week window.
As logged at issue
We think it's likely that Iran conducts at least one more direct strike attempt on Jordanian or Kuwaiti territory within two weeks, since Thursday's missile launch at Jordan and the Kuwait building strike show Tehran is now willing to hit hosts previously spared, not just Gulf states already absorbing strikes.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-07-31-03 — recorded 31 Jul 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-07-31-03.html