Colombia's incoming government formally suspends or ends the government's ELN peace talks within 60 days of Friday's inauguration (by October 6, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A formal announcement ending or suspending ELN negotiations, versus a public recommitment to talks in the inaugural address or early government statements.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 6 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
We think it's likely Colombia's incoming government formally suspends or ends ELN peace talks within 60 days of Friday's inauguration, since President-elect De la Espriella has built his "Plan Patriot 2.0" security platform explicitly around ending them; a public recommitment to talks in his inaugural address, rather than a wind-down announcement, would be the signal this doesn't happen on schedule.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-04-01 — recorded 4 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-04-01.html