A major container or tanker shipping line publicly suspends new transits of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of the August 3 Minoan Pioneer strike (by September 3, 2026).

The trajectory

The record since

• 5 Aug 26 No. 36 · revised to 60%
  A suspected Houthi strike sank the Indian-flagged Faize Noore Oliya off Hodeidah and the Houthis separately claimed an eighth strike on Saudi-linked shipping (the tanker Wafaa) -- continued attacks against a widening target set raise the odds a major line issues a public transit suspension before September 3.
• 9 Aug 26 No. 40 · revised to 68%
  A new IRGC missile strike on an ADNOC tanker near Khasab on August 8 -- one of roughly 15 attacks on Emirati vessels since February -- widens the target set again and raises the odds a major carrier finally issues a public Hormuz transit suspension before September 3.
• 14 Aug 26 No. 45 · revised to 30%
  Research finds Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd were already suspended before the August 3 Minoan Pioneer strike (Maersk since March), making a fresh suspension specifically attributable to that trigger less likely -- the majors have nothing left to newly suspend.

What would overturn it

A named major line (e.g. Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, a major tanker pool) issuing a public suspension notice, versus continued transits under elevated risk premiums.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 3 Sep 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.