The DR Congo's Ebola outbreak still carries WHO's Public Health Emergency of International Concern designation past February 2, 2027, rather than being declared over.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A WHO announcement that the PHEIC has ended, versus a sustained run of weeks with new cases below 50 that would signal the outbreak resolving faster than expected, or continued triple-digit weekly case counts.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 2 Feb 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Looking further out, we think it's likely the DR Congo's Ebola outbreak still carries WHO's Public Health Emergency of International Concern designation past February 2027 rather than being declared over, since the outbreak just posted its highest weekly case count yet with no sign of peaking; a sustained run of weeks with new cases below 50, rather than continued triple-digit weekly counts, would be the signal this resolves faster than expected.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-08-04-04 — recorded 4 Aug 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-08-04-04.html